What really could change in 2009? (To read what Change happened in the 2008 election, click here)Barrack Obama’s election as the first African-American president is in itself histori
c. But how does it fit into the arc of American history and how will that influence the days ahead?
RapidChange leaders have sat in a number of briefings by pollsters and political analysts in recent weeks. Here’s what we heard:
Historians generally agree that there have been three transformational elections in the last century. In 1913 it was the election of Wilson (pictured, right). In the ‘30s it was FDR who ushered in the New Deal legislation that changed the role of government and then in 1964-65 LBJ and the subsequent passing of Civil Rights legislation.
Most of the observers we heard believe this election could be as transformational as those were. The mood of the country is for change – we will deal with health care, safety nets, green power unhooked from Middle-East, regulation of banking and business and possibly with Social Security as we are getting closer and closer to the time when it is no longer funded. This will be over-shadowed or influenced in the beginning by the steps to recover from the banking and economic crises. Exactly what changes will be made is hard to see, but the mood of the country seems to be to do something about the following areas:
Universal health care: While we have resisted for decades, the pressure to make health care available to more people is too high to be ignored.
Green Power & Products: Obama made it clear that he will fund wind and other green power technologies. While $40/bbl oil may slow the adoption of such programs, global warming is real in the minds of the electorate and therefore it will be hard to stop.
Business’s role is up for grabs: There will be a strong tendency to put chains on businesses, to try to drive down executive pay and to prevent excesses in general. It is hard to predict the outcome of those actions – could simply move more businesses off shore. Trade barriers likely will rise based on labor and environmental differences that could slow global trade for awhile.
Doing with less could become the popular focus: Bragging on how small and efficient your home is versus how big and palatial it is will become the new “fashion.” Since spreading the world’s resources across billions of more people as China and India modernize can probably not be slowed much, it is inevitable that we learn to use less here. As that inevitability becomes obvious, human nature will be to celebrate that trend – make it popular and the “in’ thing to do. This will have a big impact on manufacturing, housing, cars, etc.
Inflation:
We have mortgaged the future of our kids with the bailouts and the over-spending of the past 20 years. We will most likely inflate our way out. Since our debt is in Dollars, we can pay it off a lot faster. This will accelerate some of the trends above. Savings will need to be in something other than dollars.
Whether or not the pollsters and pundits are correct, Obama clearly has touched the electorate and fired them up to support change. The particulars of that change will start to become clear in the weeks ahead. Exactly how it ends up will be fascinating – and it will require keen skills to
analyze, adapt and respond to Rapid Change.